This article will be completely devoted to questions of technical and probabilistic deal with. The probabilistic analysis earnings attention of methods of probability theory and algebraic statistics to forecasting of dynamics of currency tariff. The technical analysis is a forecasting method of fee dynamics by earnings of consideration of schedules pro before periods of calculate. The specified two approaches are so meticulously bound with the intention of it is better to make acquainted with their class and attention in a complicated. Equally it was already prominent, the technical analysis in all-purpose can be defined as the forecasting method of fee dynamics based on algebraic, but not on fiscal calculations. The present technical analysis traces the roots back to the commencement of the century, to Charles Dow's theory. This deal with was produced pro purely useful purposes, namely pro returns generation by a game in security markets in the commencement, and at that time and in futures markets. All techniques of the technical analysis were produced unconnectedly from all other and single in the 70th of the 20th century were united in the uniform theory with the all-purpose way of life, axioms and the basic doctrine. Today it is doable to allocate three fundamental axioms of the technical analysis.
1. The fee considers everything. Any thing influencing the fee fiscal, biased, psychological is in advance considered and reflected in its schedule. However you must not misunderstand.
2. The fee moves directionally. This axiom became a basis pro creation of all techniques of the technical analysis. The foremost task of the technical analysis is determination of the information of the movement of the prices or trends, trends pro aid in trade. Determination of trends which gives Dow looks as follows: By the ascending trend a bullish trend all later summit and all later depression are privileged than before. Inside other terms, by a bull trend the configuration of a curve has to be inflicted with consistently increasing peaks and recessions. Respectively by the descending trend a bearish trend all later summit and depression will be decrease, than before. Such determination of a trend is fundamental and serves as a early top in the analysis of trends. It is worth allocating three trend types: Bull - fee movement up, bear - fee movement down and feature - the fee virtually does not move. All three trend types come across not in wholesome form as the movement on a straight line on the fee chart can be met very seldom. Inside addition, it must be prominent with the intention of, according to present deal with to the technical analysis, the trend facility until here are thumbs down obvious signals with the intention of it altered.
3. History repeats itself. This axiom is based on the idea of constancy of creature psychology (crowd psychology). If one calculate past the circumstances urban beyond doubt, at that time here are thumbs down bases to consider with the intention of under akin early conditions promote participants will arrive differently.
Inside conclusion It must be prominent with the intention of in the present technical analysis two methods of researches allocate: Graphical analysis (directly technical approach) and algebraic analysis (probabilistic approach).